Using Software Engineering Estimates Casualties and Injuries in a Disaster

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Disaster planning and response in the 21st century go beyond just planning for large numbers of persons seeking care for injuries related to the incident. The nature of disasters has changed, becoming highly complex events that can disrupt the normal functioning of any community for long periods of time. Effective planning is needed to address the problems posed by potential events ranging from motor vehicle incidents to acts of terrorism using weapons of mass destruction.

Counting the number of deaths and injuries after natural or manmade catastrophes can be a daunting task. Predicting them is even more difficult. But an updated computer system called Electronic Mass Casualty Assessment and Planning Scenarios to be released later this year could help emergency responders estimate the numbers before disaster strikes, giving them ample time to prepare.

“This tool allows local emergency planners, hospitals and urgent care facilities to understand the potential impacts for a variety of terrorist events and natural hazards based on variables in their immediate area,” said Matthew Clark, director of university programs at the Department of Homeland Security. The department teamed up with researchers from John Hopkins University to develop the program.

This standalone software program allows users to model the health and medical impact for 9 of the 15 Department of Homeland Security National Planning Scenarios for planning and education purposes. EMCAPS was developed by The Johns Hopkins Office of Critical Event Preparedness and Response (CEPAR) and the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory (JHU/APL). Dianne Whyne, RN, MS, Administrator for Johns Hopkins Office of Critical Event Preparedness and Response in Baltimore, Maryland, served as the project manager.

Working:
Dianne Whyne, project manager says: First, you select the disaster scenario. There are nine scenarios in four disaster categories (radiological, biological, chemical and explosive), including RDD-Dirty Bomb, Inhalation Anthrax and Blister Agent – Mustard Gas. The software presents some reference information for the user, including the scenario summary, Department of Homeland Security scenario executive summary, applicable target capabilities, assumptions and references. Next, the calculations are made and a report is produced.